Metcalf (2021) provides a list of trends suspected to occur in the present and near future. His predictions range from a desperate increase in economic volatility to a more optimistic view that people will be enabled with greater mobility, creating more access and opportunity. To accompany Metcalf's prognoses, I offer three current and medium trend forecasts as well.
In the near term, echoing Metcalf (2021), there is an anticipated expectation that further global social polarization will occur. This is evident in the level of wealth disparity that continues to increase globally (Sanchez-Runde et al., 2013; Tiatia-Seath et al., 2020). If mitigating steps are not taken, a permanent poverty class could become institutionalized and unable to recover from the effects of current geopolitical, climate, and disaster events (Bรฉnรฉ et al., 2014; Guo et al., 2024; Fiorini et al., 2020). For global leaders, poverty is the first issue in the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs); from birth, globally vulnerable populations are disadvantaged in terms of nutrition, education, and medical care (United Nations, 2023). Lewis et al. explain it pointedly: "Poverty and inequality of globalization cause global problems" (Lewis et al., 2017, p. 1).
Trends are also aligned with Osland et al. (2020), which indicates how nations have operationalized boundary-spanning actions through affiliation with regional networks. Regional networks have evolved into strategic tools in their affiliations and use (Bird & Mendenhall, 2016; Pacific Island Forum, 2022; White House, 2022). For global leaders in these regions, economic and theater security issues are the main drivers influencing their affiliation with regional associations like the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and the Pacific Island Forum (PIF). These types of partnerships strategically leverage the ability of smaller countries, through regional associations, to influence global powers (Fiorini et al., 2020; Guo et al., 2024). In the Pacific, countries such as the Solomon Islands have tactically shifted their diplomatic stances to accommodate a leverage position with China in the region, which has caused a fracture in the United States' strategy in the Pacific theater (Liu, 2022; White House, 2022).
Spector (2020) holds skepticism of nations, suggesting they continue behaviors that do not result in the avoidance of errors. This is evident in global population management, as the effects of declining birth rates in first-world economies are significant precursors to a looming crisis (World Economic Forum, 2021). This decline will have long-term effects on their economies as major suppliers of goods and services. Current trends project fewer working-age individuals, leading to shortages across industries, from skilled to unskilled labor (isa-world.com, 2019). As the population ages in these economies, global leaders must address the potential long-term impact, which could include a shift in their global competitiveness as other countries with larger labor populations gain prominence.
Metcalf's (2021) predictions hold credence when considering the outlook five years from now. Beginning with climate/disaster migration: The effects of climate change and related disasters, whether natural or man-made, will likely increase global migration (Bรฉnรฉ et al., 2014; Guo et al., 2024; Rasmussen et al., 2022). Bene et al. (2014) emphasize the necessity of global resilience, aligning with the concept of an allostatic leader proposed by Fernandez and Shaw (2020). Global leaders must adhere to the importance of resilience, as Bene et al. offer, and it needs to be addressed as it is "recognized to be a source of significant vulnerability" (Bรฉnรฉ et al., 2014, p. 616).
Technology adaptation is expected to exacerbate disparities for the global poor (United Nations, 2023; Pacific Island Forum, 2022). As global leaders increasingly prioritize green strategies, countries lacking technical skills and infrastructure face greater disadvantages without intervention from more established nations (Fiorini et al., 2020; Gonzalez et al., 2018; Guo et al., 2024). Adherence to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and agreements such as the Sendai Framework will be critical for global accountability (Pacific Island Forum, 2023; United Nations, 2023; White House, 2022).
Finally, if current trends persist without employing what Bailey and Breslin (2021) would consider "organizational learning and implementation of lessons" (p. 7), there is a strong possibility of a destabilized Indo-Pacific region (White House, 2022). If history repeats itself, the current emphasis by the United States on investing and developing the Pacific region may shift due to changing political interests. Without viable commerce or industrial commodities beyond fishing, a shift towards global exclusion could enable further expansion by political and economic rivals willing to invest in the Pacific. Global leaders in countries reliant on the United States for aid and development may seek alternative sources, as evidenced by the Solomon Islands in 2024 (Liz, 2024).
