IMOA: Future Trends in Global Leadership

  

(IMOA) Imagine Pacific Original Article 

Future Trends in Global Leadership 

By James E. Faumuina, MBA, MPA 
Ph.D. Student Troy Global Leadership Program     

10/8/2024

Metcalf (2021) provides a list of trends suspected to occur in the present and near future. His predictions range from a desperate increase in economic volatility to a more optimistic view that people will be enabled with greater mobility, creating more access and opportunity. To accompany Metcalf's prognoses, I offer three current and medium trend forecasts as well.

In the near term, echoing Metcalf (2021), there is an anticipated expectation that further global social polarization will occur. This is evident in the level of wealth disparity that continues to increase globally (Sanchez-Runde et al., 2013; Tiatia-Seath et al., 2020). If mitigating steps are not taken, a permanent poverty class could become institutionalized and unable to recover from the effects of current geopolitical, climate, and disaster events (Béné et al., 2014; Guo et al., 2024; Fiorini et al., 2020). For global leaders, poverty is the first issue in the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs); from birth, globally vulnerable populations are disadvantaged in terms of nutrition, education, and medical care (United Nations, 2023). Lewis et al. explain it pointedly: "Poverty and inequality of globalization cause global problems" (Lewis et al., 2017, p. 1).

Trends are also aligned with Osland et al. (2020), which indicates how nations have operationalized boundary-spanning actions through affiliation with regional networks. Regional networks have evolved into strategic tools in their affiliations and use (Bird & Mendenhall, 2016; Pacific Island Forum, 2022; White House, 2022). For global leaders in these regions, economic and theater security issues are the main drivers influencing their affiliation with regional associations like the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and the Pacific Island Forum (PIF). These types of partnerships strategically leverage the ability of smaller countries, through regional associations, to influence global powers (Fiorini et al., 2020; Guo et al., 2024). In the Pacific, countries such as the Solomon Islands have tactically shifted their diplomatic stances to accommodate a leverage position with China in the region, which has caused a fracture in the United States' strategy in the Pacific theater (Liu, 2022; White House, 2022).

Spector (2020) holds skepticism of nations, suggesting they continue behaviors that do not result in the avoidance of errors. This is evident in global population management, as the effects of declining birth rates in first-world economies are significant precursors to a looming crisis (World Economic Forum, 2021). This decline will have long-term effects on their economies as major suppliers of goods and services. Current trends project fewer working-age individuals, leading to shortages across industries, from skilled to unskilled labor (isa-world.com, 2019). As the population ages in these economies, global leaders must address the potential long-term impact, which could include a shift in their global competitiveness as other countries with larger labor populations gain prominence.

Metcalf's (2021) predictions hold credence when considering the outlook five years from now. Beginning with climate/disaster migration: The effects of climate change and related disasters, whether natural or man-made, will likely increase global migration (Béné et al., 2014; Guo et al., 2024; Rasmussen et al., 2022). Bene et al. (2014) emphasize the necessity of global resilience, aligning with the concept of an allostatic leader proposed by Fernandez and Shaw (2020). Global leaders must adhere to the importance of resilience, as Bene et al. offer, and it needs to be addressed as it is "recognized to be a source of significant vulnerability" (Béné et al., 2014, p. 616).

Technology adaptation is expected to exacerbate disparities for the global poor (United Nations, 2023; Pacific Island Forum, 2022). As global leaders increasingly prioritize green strategies, countries lacking technical skills and infrastructure face greater disadvantages without intervention from more established nations (Fiorini et al., 2020; Gonzalez et al., 2018; Guo et al., 2024). Adherence to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and agreements such as the Sendai Framework will be critical for global accountability (Pacific Island Forum, 2023; United Nations, 2023; White House, 2022).

Finally, if current trends persist without employing what Bailey and Breslin (2021) would consider "organizational learning and implementation of lessons" (p. 7), there is a strong possibility of a destabilized Indo-Pacific region (White House, 2022). If history repeats itself, the current emphasis by the United States on investing and developing the Pacific region may shift due to changing political interests. Without viable commerce or industrial commodities beyond fishing, a shift towards global exclusion could enable further expansion by political and economic rivals willing to invest in the Pacific. Global leaders in countries reliant on the United States for aid and development may seek alternative sources, as evidenced by the Solomon Islands in 2024 (Liz, 2024).

James is the owner of Imagine Pacific Enterprises and the Editor of Imagine Pacific Pulse (IMPULSE). He is a retired Lt Col, Hawaii Air National Guard. Former medical administrator, planner, program manager, and operations officer. Graduated from the USAF Air War College and is currently a Ph.D. student in the in Troy Global Leadership Program. He can be contacted at jfaumuina@troy.edu 

References:

1. Bailey, K., & Breslin, D. (2021). The COVID‐19 pandemic: What can we learn from past research in organizations and management? International Journal of Management Reviews, 23(1), 3–6. https://doi.org/10.1111/ijmr.12237

2. Béné, C., Newsham, A., Davies, M., Ulrichs, M., & Godfrey‐Wood, R. (2014). Review article: Resilience, poverty, and development. Journal of International Development, 26(5), 598–623. https://doi.org/10.1002/jid.2992

3. Bird, A., & Mendenhall, M. E. (2016). From cross-cultural management to global leadership: Evolution and adaptation. Journal of World Business, 51(1), 115–126. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jwb.2015.10.005

4. Bye, bye, baby? Birthrates are declining globally – here’s why it matters. (2021, June 15). World Economic Forum. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/06/birthrates-declining-globally-why-matters/

5. Fernandez, A. A., & Shaw, G. P. (2020). Academic leadership in a time of crisis: The coronavirus and COVID‐19. Journal of Leadership Studies, 14(1), 39–45. https://doi.org/10.1002/jls.21684

6. Fiorini, R. A., Alvarez-Pereira, C., Jacobs, G., & Kiniger-Passigli, D. (2020). Global transformative leadership in the 21st century: A science, engineering, technology integrated and strategic perspective. Cadmus, 4(2).

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8. Guo, X., Chmutova, I., Kryvobok, K., Lozova, T., & Kramskyi, S. (2024). The race for global leadership and its risks for world instability: Technologies of controlling and mitigation. Research Journal in Advanced Humanities, 5(1).

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10. Liu, Z. Z. (2022, May 4). What the China-Solomon Islands pact means for the U.S. and South Pacific. Council on Foreign Relations.

11. Metcalf, M. (2020). Leadership trends for 2021 and beyond. Forbes.

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13. Pacific Island Forum. (2022). 2050 strategy for the Blue Pacific continent. Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat.

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15. Sanchez-Runde, C. J., Nardon, L., & Steers, R. M. (2013). The cultural roots of ethical conflicts in global business. Journal of Business Ethics, 116(4), 689–701. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10551-013-1815-y

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18. Tiatia-Seath, J., Tupou, T., & Fookes, I. (2020). Climate change, mental health, and well-being for Pacific peoples: A literature review. The Contemporary Pacific, 32(2), 399–430. https://doi.org/10.1353/cp.2020.0035

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20. White House. (2022). Indo-Pacific strategy of the United States. White House.

🤝 IMSPARK: Pacific Islands Rise Above the Waves🤝

🤝 Imagine... Pacific Islands Rise Above the Waves🤝

💡 Imagined Endstate: 

A resilient Marshall Islands where communities thrive despite the rising sea levels, thanks to strategic adaptation funded through international support.

🔗 Link: 

Marshall Islands Adaptation Fund Announcement

📚 Source: 

Te Ao News (2024). Marshall Islands: MFAT gives $62M to adapt to rising sea levels.

💥 What’s the Big Deal: 

The Marshall Islands, a nation at the frontline of climate change, faces severe threats from rising sea levels and coastal erosion🌊. The $62M grant from New Zealand’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFAT) will enable the Marshallese government to implement much-needed adaptation measures🌱.  This funding is a lifeline to safeguard livelihoods, infrastructure, and ecosystems—allowing islanders to protect their cultural heritage while adapting to new realities💧.  As seas rise, the islands are fortifying their coastlines, investing in climate-resilient infrastructure, and implementing community-driven solutions to ensure long-term sustainability🏝️.  More than a mere financial transaction, this investment represents a commitment to global climate justice and highlights the importance of collaboration between Pacific nations and the international community🌍. This initiative is not just a win for the Marshall Islands, but for all of humanity, showing that when nations unite, we can confront the biggest challenges of our time.

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