IMOA: Future Trends in Global Leadership

  

(IMOA) Imagine Pacific Original Article 

Future Trends in Global Leadership 

By James E. Faumuina, MBA, MPA 
Ph.D. Student Troy Global Leadership Program     

10/8/2024

Metcalf (2021) provides a list of trends suspected to occur in the present and near future. His predictions range from a desperate increase in economic volatility to a more optimistic view that people will be enabled with greater mobility, creating more access and opportunity. To accompany Metcalf's prognoses, I offer three current and medium trend forecasts as well.

In the near term, echoing Metcalf (2021), there is an anticipated expectation that further global social polarization will occur. This is evident in the level of wealth disparity that continues to increase globally (Sanchez-Runde et al., 2013; Tiatia-Seath et al., 2020). If mitigating steps are not taken, a permanent poverty class could become institutionalized and unable to recover from the effects of current geopolitical, climate, and disaster events (Béné et al., 2014; Guo et al., 2024; Fiorini et al., 2020). For global leaders, poverty is the first issue in the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs); from birth, globally vulnerable populations are disadvantaged in terms of nutrition, education, and medical care (United Nations, 2023). Lewis et al. explain it pointedly: "Poverty and inequality of globalization cause global problems" (Lewis et al., 2017, p. 1).

Trends are also aligned with Osland et al. (2020), which indicates how nations have operationalized boundary-spanning actions through affiliation with regional networks. Regional networks have evolved into strategic tools in their affiliations and use (Bird & Mendenhall, 2016; Pacific Island Forum, 2022; White House, 2022). For global leaders in these regions, economic and theater security issues are the main drivers influencing their affiliation with regional associations like the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and the Pacific Island Forum (PIF). These types of partnerships strategically leverage the ability of smaller countries, through regional associations, to influence global powers (Fiorini et al., 2020; Guo et al., 2024). In the Pacific, countries such as the Solomon Islands have tactically shifted their diplomatic stances to accommodate a leverage position with China in the region, which has caused a fracture in the United States' strategy in the Pacific theater (Liu, 2022; White House, 2022).

Spector (2020) holds skepticism of nations, suggesting they continue behaviors that do not result in the avoidance of errors. This is evident in global population management, as the effects of declining birth rates in first-world economies are significant precursors to a looming crisis (World Economic Forum, 2021). This decline will have long-term effects on their economies as major suppliers of goods and services. Current trends project fewer working-age individuals, leading to shortages across industries, from skilled to unskilled labor (isa-world.com, 2019). As the population ages in these economies, global leaders must address the potential long-term impact, which could include a shift in their global competitiveness as other countries with larger labor populations gain prominence.

Metcalf's (2021) predictions hold credence when considering the outlook five years from now. Beginning with climate/disaster migration: The effects of climate change and related disasters, whether natural or man-made, will likely increase global migration (Béné et al., 2014; Guo et al., 2024; Rasmussen et al., 2022). Bene et al. (2014) emphasize the necessity of global resilience, aligning with the concept of an allostatic leader proposed by Fernandez and Shaw (2020). Global leaders must adhere to the importance of resilience, as Bene et al. offer, and it needs to be addressed as it is "recognized to be a source of significant vulnerability" (Béné et al., 2014, p. 616).

Technology adaptation is expected to exacerbate disparities for the global poor (United Nations, 2023; Pacific Island Forum, 2022). As global leaders increasingly prioritize green strategies, countries lacking technical skills and infrastructure face greater disadvantages without intervention from more established nations (Fiorini et al., 2020; Gonzalez et al., 2018; Guo et al., 2024). Adherence to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and agreements such as the Sendai Framework will be critical for global accountability (Pacific Island Forum, 2023; United Nations, 2023; White House, 2022).

Finally, if current trends persist without employing what Bailey and Breslin (2021) would consider "organizational learning and implementation of lessons" (p. 7), there is a strong possibility of a destabilized Indo-Pacific region (White House, 2022). If history repeats itself, the current emphasis by the United States on investing and developing the Pacific region may shift due to changing political interests. Without viable commerce or industrial commodities beyond fishing, a shift towards global exclusion could enable further expansion by political and economic rivals willing to invest in the Pacific. Global leaders in countries reliant on the United States for aid and development may seek alternative sources, as evidenced by the Solomon Islands in 2024 (Liz, 2024).

James is the owner of Imagine Pacific Enterprises and the Editor of Imagine Pacific Pulse (IMPULSE). He is a retired Lt Col, Hawaii Air National Guard. Former medical administrator, planner, program manager, and operations officer. Graduated from the USAF Air War College and is currently a Ph.D. student in the in Troy Global Leadership Program. He can be contacted at jfaumuina@troy.edu 

References:

1. Bailey, K., & Breslin, D. (2021). The COVID‐19 pandemic: What can we learn from past research in organizations and management? International Journal of Management Reviews, 23(1), 3–6. https://doi.org/10.1111/ijmr.12237

2. Béné, C., Newsham, A., Davies, M., Ulrichs, M., & Godfrey‐Wood, R. (2014). Review article: Resilience, poverty, and development. Journal of International Development, 26(5), 598–623. https://doi.org/10.1002/jid.2992

3. Bird, A., & Mendenhall, M. E. (2016). From cross-cultural management to global leadership: Evolution and adaptation. Journal of World Business, 51(1), 115–126. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jwb.2015.10.005

4. Bye, bye, baby? Birthrates are declining globally – here’s why it matters. (2021, June 15). World Economic Forum. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/06/birthrates-declining-globally-why-matters/

5. Fernandez, A. A., & Shaw, G. P. (2020). Academic leadership in a time of crisis: The coronavirus and COVID‐19. Journal of Leadership Studies, 14(1), 39–45. https://doi.org/10.1002/jls.21684

6. Fiorini, R. A., Alvarez-Pereira, C., Jacobs, G., & Kiniger-Passigli, D. (2020). Global transformative leadership in the 21st century: A science, engineering, technology integrated and strategic perspective. Cadmus, 4(2).

7. Gonzalez, F., Kallinikos, J., Mansell, R., & Müller, J.-W. (2018). The age of perplexity: Rethinking the world we knew. Penguin Random House Group.

8. Guo, X., Chmutova, I., Kryvobok, K., Lozova, T., & Kramskyi, S. (2024). The race for global leadership and its risks for world instability: Technologies of controlling and mitigation. Research Journal in Advanced Humanities, 5(1).

9. Lewis, E., Boston, D., & Peterson, S. (2017). A global perspective of transformational leadership and organizational development. Journal of Research Initiatives, 2(3), 1–6.

10. Liu, Z. Z. (2022, May 4). What the China-Solomon Islands pact means for the U.S. and South Pacific. Council on Foreign Relations.

11. Metcalf, M. (2020). Leadership trends for 2021 and beyond. Forbes.

12. Osland, J. S., Mendenhall, M. E., Reiche, B. S., Szkudlarek, B., Bolden, R., Courtice, P., Vaiman, V., Vaiman, M., Lyndgaard, D., Nielsen, K., Terrell, S., Taylor, S., Lee, Y., Stahl, G., Boyacigiller, N., Huesing, T., Miska, C., Zilinskaite, M., Ruiz, L., & Maznevski, M. (2020). Perspectives on global leadership and the COVID-19 crisis. Advances in Global Leadership, 13, 3–56.

13. Pacific Island Forum. (2022). 2050 strategy for the Blue Pacific continent. Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat.

14. Rasmussen, E., Nakano, G., Kabua, S. K., & Hatoum, A. (2022). Climate-focused field research within the Kwajalein Atoll Sustainability Laboratory. In 2022 IEEE Global Humanitarian Technology Conference (GHTC) (pp. 465–468). https://doi.org/10.1109/GHTC55712.2022.9911040

15. Sanchez-Runde, C. J., Nardon, L., & Steers, R. M. (2013). The cultural roots of ethical conflicts in global business. Journal of Business Ethics, 116(4), 689–701. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10551-013-1815-y

16. Spector, B. (2020). Even in a global pandemic, there’s no such thing as a crisis. Leadership, 16(3), 303–313. https://doi.org/10.1177/1742715020927111

17. The economic impact of falling birth rates. (2019, September 12). ISA-World.com.

18. Tiatia-Seath, J., Tupou, T., & Fookes, I. (2020). Climate change, mental health, and well-being for Pacific peoples: A literature review. The Contemporary Pacific, 32(2), 399–430. https://doi.org/10.1353/cp.2020.0035

19. United Nations. (2023). The Sustainable Development Goals report 2023: Special edition. United Nations. https://doi.org/10.18356/9789210024914

20. White House. (2022). Indo-Pacific strategy of the United States. White House.

🌎IMSPARK: Pacific Islands Leading in Climate Resilience🌎

🌎Imagine... Pacific Islands Leading in Climate Resilience🌎

💡 Imagined Endstate: 

A future where Pacific Island nations invest heavily in climate preparedness, saving lives, jobs, and infrastructure from extreme weather events, building more resilient and sustainable communities.

🔗 Link: 

The Preparedness Payoff

📚 Source: 

U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Allstate, & U.S. Chamber of Commerce Foundation. (2024, June 25). The Preparedness Payoff: The Economic Benefits of Investing in Climate Resilience. 2024 Climate Resiliency Report.

💥 What’s the Big Deal: 

Pacific Island nations face increasing climate-related threats 🌊, but every dollar invested in disaster preparation saves $13 in future recovery costs. 🌱 Investments in resilient infrastructure, community planning, and early warning systems protect homes 🏡, local businesses 💼, and cultural heritage 🌴, ensuring quicker recovery from storms, floods, and rising sea levels. Climate preparedness boosts local economies 📉 and strengthens communities, making islands more self-reliant and less dependent on external aid. This forward-thinking approach ensures long-term sustainability and resilience  for future generations.

 

#ClimateResilience,#PacificPreparedness,#InvestInThePacific,#SustainableFuture,#DisasterMitigation,#ResilientIslands,#ClimateActionNow,#IMSPARK,

👩‍🏫IMSPARK: Bridging the Teacher Pay Gap in the Pacific👩‍🏫

👩‍🏫Imagine... Bridging the Teacher Pay Gap in the Pacific👩‍🏫

💡 Imagined Endstate: 

A future where Pacific Island educators are compensated fairly, aligning their pay with other college graduates, ensuring quality education and fostering resilient communities.

🔗 Link: 

Teacher Pay in 2023

📚 Source: 

Economic Policy Institute (2023)

💥 What’s the Big Deal: 

In Pacific Island nations, educators are critical pillars of both academic and cultural education.  The 26.6% wage gap with other college graduates is widening, pushing valuable educators out of the profession. This lack of compensation not only hampers teacher retention 📉 but threatens educational consistency and community resilience in the Pacific 🌊. In many rural and island regions, teachers serve as mentors, cultural stewards, and economic contributors. 🌎

By closing the teacher wage gap, we invest in sustainable education that strengthens Pacific communities. Fair compensation leads to better teacher retention, directly benefiting students and communities 💪. It’s not just about wages—it’s about valuing the heart of the Pacific education system.

#PacificEducation, #TeacherPayGap, #EquityInEducation,#SupportPacificTeachers, #SustainableTeaching, #PacificResilience,#payequality,#IMSPARK,

📉IMSPARK: Insights from the Global Poverty Update📉

📉Imagine… Insights from the Global Poverty Update📉

💡 Imagined Endstate: 

A Pacific region where sustainable development strategies eliminate poverty, uplift vulnerable populations, and create pathways to prosperity for all.

🔗 Link: 

September 2024 Global Poverty Update from the World Bank

📚 Source: 

World Bank. (2024). September 2024 Global Poverty Update.

💥 What’s the Big Deal:

In this article by the World Bank, the September 2024 Global Poverty Update highlights crucial shifts in global poverty trends, particularly in regions like the Pacific, where economic vulnerabilities are magnified by climate change 🌏, natural disasters 🌊, and limited access to resources. This report paints a clear picture of how Pacific Island nations, often highly dependent on external aid and tourism, must urgently adapt to new challenges to combat poverty.

The Pacific’s unique vulnerabilities require tailored strategies that blend traditional knowledge with innovative economic solutions. 🏝️ By addressing income inequalities and ensuring that all communities benefit from global efforts to reduce poverty, these nations can unlock their full potential for development and growth. 💡

As poverty levels rise due to external pressures like inflation 📈 and environmental degradation, the Pacific’s future hinges on creating resilient economies that provide inclusive opportunities for education 📚, healthcare 🏥, and sustainable livelihoods 🌱. The Global Poverty Update serves as a call to action for both local governments and international organizations to prioritize long-term poverty reduction efforts in the region. 🌺

#GlobalPovertyUpdate,#PacificDevelopment,#PovertyReduction,#SustainableEconomies,#InclusiveGrowth,#IslandResilience,#WorldBankUpdate,#IMSPARK

🌐IMSPARK: Harnessing AI for Pacific Economic Growth🌐

🌐Imagine… Harnessing AI for Pacific Economic Growth🌐

💡 Imagined Endstate: 

A future where the Pacific Islands harness the power of AI to transform their economies, driving sustainable growth and creating new opportunities for innovation and global competitiveness.

🔗 Link: 

AI’s Promise for the Global Economy - Michael Spence, IMF

📚 Source: 

Spence, M. (2024). AI’s Promise for the Global Economy. International Monetary Fund.

💥 What’s the Big Deal:

In this article by Michael Spence, he explores how AI is reshaping the global economy. For Pacific nations, this presents a unique opportunity to leapfrog traditional development hurdles and integrate AI technologies into various sectors, including agriculture, tourism, and sustainable energy🌱.

While many Pacific economies face challenges such as geographical isolation and resource limitations, AI offers the promise of overcoming these barriers by enabling enhanced decision-making, efficiency, and innovation. 🧠 By adopting AI-driven solutions, Pacific nations can improve disaster preparedness, optimize natural resource management, and open new economic pathways that were previously unimaginable🌊.

The challenge is ensuring that AI implementation is inclusive, equitable, and adaptable to the Pacific context. 📊 By fostering collaboration with global partners, investing in digital infrastructure, and nurturing local talent, Pacific nations can position themselves as leaders in AI innovation for sustainability and resilience. 🌺 The key lies in proactive planning and ensuring that AI’s benefits are accessible to all, helping to bridge the economic gap and foster long-term growth across the region 💻.

#PacificInnovation,#SustainableGrowth,#GlobalEconomy,#AI,#Resilience,#TechForGood,#EconomicTransformation,#IMSPARK,

💼 IMSPARK: Family Office Model in the Pacific💼

💼 Imagine… Family Office Model in the Pacific💼

💡 Imagined Endstate: 

A Pacific region where family-owned businesses leverage wealth through innovative family office models, ensuring sustainable growth, resilience, and economic leadership across the islands.

🔗 Link: 

Asia-Pacific’s Family Office Boom: Opportunity Knocks

📚 Source: 

McKinsey & Company. (2024). Asia-Pacific’s Family Office Boom: Opportunity Knocks.

💥 What’s the Big Deal:

In this McKinsey report, the rapid expansion of family offices in the Asia-Pacific region 🌏 is highlighted as a game-changing trend for the Pacific. As the wealth of Pacific-based families grows, family offices provide a powerful mechanism for managing, preserving, and multiplying that wealth through strategic investments and innovation 🌱.

The boom offers immense opportunities for Pacific Island families to focus on long-term economic sustainability 🌺, empowering local communities 🏝️ and fostering regional resilience. 🌊 By creating tailored family office models, these families can drive impact beyond their immediate circles, supporting education 🎓, healthcare 🏥, and environmental initiatives 🌍, all while contributing to the global economy.

This family office revolution can ensure intergenerational wealth transfer while promoting a stronger, more diversified Pacific economy. For family-owned enterprises across the islands, this is a golden opportunity to lead in sectors such as sustainable tourism, renewable energy, and technology. 🌟

#PacificFamilyWealth,#AsiaPacificGrowth,#EconomicSustainability,#FamilyOfficeLeadership,#GenerationalWealth,#ImpactInvesting,#IslandResilience,#IMSPARK

🏥IMSPARK: A Future Where IVF Treatment is Revolutionized🏥

🏥Imagine… A Future Where IVF Treatment is Revolutionized🏥

💡 Imagined Endstate: 

A Pacific where deeptech innovations revolutionize fertility treatments, making IVF affordable and accessible to communities across island nations.

🔗 Link: 

The DIY IVF Cycle – Harnessing the Power of Deeptech to Bring ART to the Masses

📚 Source: 

Brayboy, L. M., & Quaas, A. M. (2023). The DIY IVF Cycle – Harnessing the Power of Deeptech to Bring ART to the Masses. Journal of Assisted Reproduction and Genetics, 40(2), 259-263. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10815-022-02691-x

💥 What’s the Big Deal:

In this groundbreaking article, Brayboy and Quaas present a game-changing vision for the future of Assisted Reproductive Technology (ART) through the concept of the “DIY IVF cycle.” 🌱 This deeptech-driven innovation has the potential to drastically reduce the costs of in vitro fertilization (IVF), making it accessible to communities that traditionally could not afford these treatments. For the Pacific region 🌊, where access to advanced medical technologies is often limited due to geographic and economic barriers, the impact could be profound. 🏝️

By leveraging new technologies, island communities could see a future where fertility treatments are not restricted to the elite few, but are instead available to anyone in need, ensuring reproductive equity 🌺. This advancement would be particularly significant for families in the Pacific who face the dual challenges of isolation and economic constraints. The introduction of cost-effective, DIY IVF could mean the difference between an unattainable dream and a future filled with new possibilities for family-building 💡.

The Pacific stands to benefit immensely from these innovations, making it a pioneer in reproductive healthcare 🌍.

#DIYIVF,#FertilityInnovation,#PacificHealthcare,#Deeptech,#AccessibleIVF,#ReproductiveEquity,#FamilyBuilding,#IMSPARK,

🌿IMSPARK: Advancing Knowledge on the Impact of Air Pollution in the Pacific🌿

🌿Imagine... Advancing Knowledge on the Impact of Air Pollution in the Pacific🌿

💡 Imagined Endstate: 

A future where Pacific communities benefit from cutting-edge research on environmental factors like air pollution, empowering health professionals and policymakers to safeguard public health.

🔗 Link: 

Air Pollution Impact Research

📚 Source: 

National Library of Medicine. (2023). Air Pollution and Its Links to Cognitive Decline. PubMed.

💥 What’s the Big Deal:

In this groundbreaking study, researchers explore the alarming connection between air pollution and cognitive decline. 🌍 While much of the research is focused on major urban areas, its findings are vital for Pacific nations, where environmental shifts 🌬️ and pollution patterns are changing due to urbanization and climate change. 🌡️

For Pacific Island communities, this research sheds light on the importance of monitoring air quality and understanding the broader impacts on public health. 🌿 By utilizing these insights, policymakers 🏛️ can implement interventions and strategies to mitigate air pollution’s effects, especially among vulnerable populations. 🧑‍⚕️

This study paves the way for future research tailored to the unique environmental landscapes of the Pacific, empowering leaders and health professionals to create healthier environments for generations to come. 

#AirPollutionImpact,#PacificHealthResearch,#EnvironmentalHealth,#CognitiveDecline,#PublicHealthAction,#ClimateAndHealth,#CleanerAir,#IMSPARK 

⚠️ IMSPARK: A Safer Pacific: Lessons from Lahaina⚠️

 ⚠️ Imagine... A Safer Pacific: Lessons from Lahaina⚠️

💡 Imagined Endstate: 

A future where Pacific communities are better equipped to prevent, respond to, and recover from devastating fire incidents, ensuring that the lessons from Lahaina guide safety measures across the region.

🔗 Link: 

Lahaina Fire Incident Analysis Report Released by the Attorney General of Hawaii

📚 Source: 

Fire Safety Research Institute. (2024). Lahaina Fire Incident Analysis Report Released by the Attorney General of Hawaii.

💥 What’s the Big Deal:

In this detailed incident analysis report of the Lahaina Fire, the tragic event serves as a critical case study 🌋 for Pacific communities facing similar environmental risks. The report outlines key factors that contributed to the fire’s rapid spread and provides essential insights into where response efforts could be improved. 🌪️

For the Pacific, where fires, storms, and other natural disasters are increasingly frequent, these findings are vital. 🌊 By understanding the root causes of such incidents and implementing targeted recommendations, island communities 🏝️ can bolster their fire prevention, response, and recovery strategies, ensuring that no community is left vulnerable. 🔥 The Lahaina Fire serves as a stark reminder that preparedness, effective communication, and quick response times are crucial to saving lives and property. 🌏

The hope is that the lessons learned from Lahaina will act as a blueprint for creating safer, more resilient communities across the Pacific, ready to face future environmental threats. 🔥

#LahainaFireLessons,#PacificResilience,#FireSafetyPreparedness,#CommunityProtection,#EmergencyResponse,#IslandSafety,#DisasterResilience

🏠 IMSPARK: A Pacific Prepared for the Rising Costs of Homeowners Insurance🏠

🏠 Imagine... A Pacific Prepared for the Rising Costs of Homeowners Insurance🏠

💡 Imagined Endstate: 

A future where Pacific homeowners are safeguarded with affordable, comprehensive insurance solutions, ensuring their properties and livelihoods are protected from climate-related risks and rising insurance costs.

🔗 Link: 

Homeowners Insurance Costs Are Growing Fast but Coverage Is Shrinking

📚 Source: 

Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. (2024). Homeowners Insurance Costs Are Growing Fast but Coverage Is Shrinking. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.

💥 What’s the Big Deal:

In this article, the rising costs of homeowners insurance are a major concern for many, especially in regions like the Pacific 🌺 where climate-related risks are increasing. As extreme weather events become more frequent, 🌩️ insurance companies are raising premiums while reducing coverage options, leaving homeowners more vulnerable. This is particularly problematic in island nations 🏝️ where natural disasters, such as typhoons and rising sea levels, are a growing threat. 🌊

For Pacific communities, the challenge is not only about navigating the financial strain of higher premiums but also ensuring adequate coverage against these unpredictable environmental risks. 🌪️ There is a need for innovative insurance models that address the unique challenges faced by Pacific homeowners, ensuring they can protect their homes without breaking the bank 💸. As this article highlights, the intersection of climate change and the insurance industry will play a crucial role in shaping the future resilience of our Pacific communities 🌏.

#HomeInsuranceCrisis,#ClimateRiskInsurance,#PacificPreparedness,#ProtectOurHomes,#RisingPremiums,#ClimateChange,#ResilientCommunities,#IMSPARK,